“heads I win, tails I don’t lose much”

  Code:                           NASDAQCM.SPRT Market cap:               $50m Enterprise value:     $0   Thesis Support.com is a very average business that provides technical support for customers of Comcast, Office Depot etc. that has been losing money for years. The reason I think it’s interesting is because it currently has a market cap of ~$50m and net cash on … Continue reading “heads I win, tails I don’t lose much”

a different frame of reference

AFH Financial Investment Thesis Nov-17 Market Data Ticker:                     AIM.AFHP Market cap:             £94m (post raise) Enterprise value:     £73m (excluding net cash adjusted for regulatory capital)   Event AFH raised £17.5m via an institutional placement to accelerate their growth trajectory. Based on the increasing deal size, combined with managements ambitious growth aspirations, we believe they will … Continue reading a different frame of reference

are we the proverbial frog in a pot?

The boiling frog parable is often used as a metaphor for people's inability to react to threats that arise gradually. The story goes that if a frog is placed suddenly into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out. However, if the frog is put in tepid water which is then slowly brought to … Continue reading are we the proverbial frog in a pot?

investing in a tortoise

In a world of artificially low interest rates, public market investors seem to be rewarding one thing: growth. However, I have always had a preference for lower growth companies with extremely stable/predictable revenue streams, great cash conversion and a sensible capital allocation policy. This investment philosophy describes the type of investments many Private Equity firms target … Continue reading investing in a tortoise

the predictive power of the yield curve

The vast majority of posts on this blog will be centered around my investment philosophy which is 99.9% bottom up, value based, fundamental analysis. However, there are a few macro indicators that I keep track of in order to take the "temperature" of the overall market. While I would never base an individual investment thesis or overall … Continue reading the predictive power of the yield curve

weekly wrap 15/09/17

"Market efficiency depends on the relative proportion of market participants who are making investment decisions with their prefrontal cortexes to the ones relying on their more instinctive faculties, such as fight-or-flight" - Andrew Lo   As you may have guessed from this weeks quote, I've been reading Adaptive Markets recently and I think it's a great synthesis … Continue reading weekly wrap 15/09/17