are we the proverbial frog in a pot?

The boiling frog parable is often used as a metaphor for people's inability to react to threats that arise gradually. The story goes that if a frog is placed suddenly into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out. However, if the frog is put in tepid water which is then slowly brought to … Continue reading are we the proverbial frog in a pot?

investing in a tortoise

In a world of artificially low interest rates, public market investors seem to be rewarding one thing: growth. However, I have always had a preference for lower growth companies with extremely stable/predictable revenue streams, great cash conversion and a sensible capital allocation policy. This investment philosophy describes the type of investments many Private Equity firms target … Continue reading investing in a tortoise

the predictive power of the yield curve

The vast majority of posts on this blog will be centered around my investment philosophy which is 99.9% bottom up, value based, fundamental analysis. However, there are a few macro indicators that I keep track of in order to take the "temperature" of the overall market. While I would never base an individual investment thesis or overall … Continue reading the predictive power of the yield curve

it’s the end of the world as we know it…

Apologies in advance for the bait-and-switch, but this is not an article in which I warn you about imminent financial Armageddon. However, listening to the famous R.E.M. song over the weekend got me thinking -  what if the (financial) world did actually come to an end tomorrow?   Broad-based market sell-offs are inevitable and it's … Continue reading it’s the end of the world as we know it…

why long term thinking is crucial

With the market becoming increasingly focussed on the short term earnings outlook for a company, I thought it would be worthwhile stepping back to first principles: how do we determine what a business is worth? The idea of a stock being worth the present value of all the future cash flows it would generate was … Continue reading why long term thinking is crucial

A quant scan for good capital allocators

Over the past few weeks I've been doing some in-depth due diligence on a potential investment that operates in the advertising industry. A key focus of my DD process is the sustainability of customers and their associated annual spend - recurring revenues from loyal, sticky customers are high on my priority list. A quick way … Continue reading A quant scan for good capital allocators