the predictive power of the yield curve

The vast majority of posts on this blog will be centered around my investment philosophy which is 99.9% bottom up, value based, fundamental analysis. However, there are a few macro indicators that I keep track of in order to take the "temperature" of the overall market. While I would never base an individual investment thesis or overall … Continue reading the predictive power of the yield curve

weekly wrap 15/09/17

"Market efficiency depends on the relative proportion of market participants who are making investment decisions with their prefrontal cortexes to the ones relying on their more instinctive faculties, such as fight-or-flight" - Andrew Lo   As you may have guessed from this weeks quote, I've been reading Adaptive Markets recently and I think it's a great synthesis … Continue reading weekly wrap 15/09/17

it’s the end of the world as we know it…

Apologies in advance for the bait-and-switch, but this is not an article in which I warn you about imminent financial Armageddon. However, listening to the famous R.E.M. song over the weekend got me thinking -  what if the (financial) world did actually come to an end tomorrow?   Broad-based market sell-offs are inevitable and it's … Continue reading it’s the end of the world as we know it…

why long term thinking is crucial

With the market becoming increasingly focussed on the short term earnings outlook for a company, I thought it would be worthwhile stepping back to first principles: how do we determine what a business is worth? The idea of a stock being worth the present value of all the future cash flows it would generate was … Continue reading why long term thinking is crucial

sometimes all you have to do is pick up the $20 note

There is an old economics joke that tells the story of a Finance Professor and his student walking down the street together: The student looks down and sees a $20 bill on the street and says, “Hey, look a twenty-dollar bill!” Without even looking, his older and wiser Professor replies, “Nonsense. If there had been … Continue reading sometimes all you have to do is pick up the $20 note

weekly wrap 18/08/17

"Acting with the crowd ensures an acceptable mediocrity; acting independently runs the risk of unacceptable under-performance” - Seth Klarman     This week I've been reading HBR's Guide to Buying a Small Business, by Richard Ruback and Royce Yudkoff. What I enjoyed most about the book was its practicality and applicability - even if you're not … Continue reading weekly wrap 18/08/17

A quant scan for good capital allocators

Over the past few weeks I've been doing some in-depth due diligence on a potential investment that operates in the advertising industry. A key focus of my DD process is the sustainability of customers and their associated annual spend - recurring revenues from loyal, sticky customers are high on my priority list. A quick way … Continue reading A quant scan for good capital allocators