- “By the time the uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen. Investors frequently benefit from making investment decisions with less than perfect knowledge and are well rewarded for bearing the risk of uncertainty”
- Acting with the crowd ensures an acceptable mediocrity; acting independently runs the risk of unacceptable underperformance”
- When investors worry about what a client will think rather than what they themselves think, the process is bad.
- When people start to give something away at a ridiculous price because they have to, not because they want to, that’s a good time to buy
- That “frenetic and crazy” is an opportunity. If you want to manage your portfolio to never have a down month, then perhaps T-bills are the only alternative
- As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve to reinforce the wisdom of caution
- Finally, be aware that the market does not turn when market participants begin to see light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before.
- “One of the mental shortcuts that our brains are programmed to make is that doing what others are doing is safer than doing something different
- You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take
Sir Isaac Newton
- “I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men”
- Inaction and patience are very important traits, but they need to be coupled with decisiveness and willingness to act in size
- “Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth”
- “Mimicking the herd, invites regression to the mean.”
- “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”
- “The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple”
- “Two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. … We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
- “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”
- “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”
- A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.
- “The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone, is likely to find himself in places no one has ever been.”
- “I’ve lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened”
- “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”
- “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect”
- The future ain’t what it used to be.
- “a hugely profitable investment that doesn’t begin with discomfort is usually an oxymoron.”
- “I like to say Oaktree buys when people say, “no way” and sells when they say, “no sweat”
- The wise investor can profit if he can think independently of the crowd and reach the rich answer when the majority of financial opinion is leaning the other way.
- This matter of training oneself not to go with the crowd but to be able to zig when the crowd zags, in my opinion, is one of the most important fundamentals of investment success.
- It is the nature of business that in even the best-run companies unexpected difficulties, profit squeezes, and unfavorable shifts in demand for their products will at times occur.
- More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason.
- Prices fluctuate more than values—so therein lies opportunity.
- The market may not agree with you in the short term, but you have to stick it out to get right.
John Maynard Keynes
- “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally”
And never forget to think long term…